One reason that I've been wrong on Apple recently: international sales. In my myopic, right-wing, "USA!" chanting, inbred patriotic fervor, I've forgotten that there's a rest of the world. Just because it seems like every one of my domestic Apple adoring friends already has an Iphone, Ipad and Macbook, and thus Apple sales should really be starting to peter out, doesn't mean that the same is true of every Chinese, or Indian, or even German Apple devotee. My bad.
But it's still a reasonable short.